Aaron R. Carmichaelaaronrcarmichael.com

arc / things / undertow

Undertow

  1. need to get out of fantasy land and find where this sucks conceptually and technically/in practice.

    The project crosses from fantasy into working software. Celebration lasts less than a paragraph before hostile review begins.

    evidence
    ARC-2025-008 · 398654d9-20f8-4ee1-8fcd-f04043680919
  2. next steps are to basically break it apart with a hammer and make it do what it actually needs to do.

    The live MVP becomes a sacrificial branch. Outcome resolution, odds, manipulation, retention, ingestion, and the actual product loop are all still moving.

    evidence
    ARC-2025-009 · 931ee462-73fa-441c-afc7-8bbfc70616fe
  3. How can we make the markets and stuff alive without users? If I make a stock trading app or platform, all the OPRA data exists even if I don’t have users

    Open question: where the baseline cultural data comes from before a user community exists.

    evidence
    ARC-2026-017 · ef646f78-4ee1-43d5-842e-667e8b46b532
  4. I'm still a little confused on the difference between betting on a market, investing in an artist, and submitting a forecast. Did we ever figure out why there's three of those?

    Last public state: market, investment, and forecast remain three product primitives without a convincing reason to coexist.

    evidence
    ARC-2026-018 · ab3a8b57-10c3-4bff-8a48-feaf6fd7ca25

present condition

  • Working MVP existeddocumented
  • Underlying cultural data before usersopen
  • Market / investment / forecast relationshipunresolved
  • Current deployment and product statenot asserted